Ukraine faces crisis of confidence with US unable to send aid and NATO undecided on how to stop Russian aggression as eastern city of Avdiivka falls 

Ashe N Ayer (TNA)

Ukraine is in a spot. Its facing a crisis of confidence. USA that supported it through the two yearlong invasions into its territories by Russia is probably now saying “As long as we can”, a change of tone from the earlier “As long as it takes. “

French President Emanuel Macaron recently said French troops could fight alongside Ukranian army to prevent Russia from winning, but did not specify any timeline. While Macaron indirectly influenced NATO to put its boots on the ground in Ukraine, NATO's leaders dismissed the whole idea, but after 9 months of stalemate, Russian forces are advancing. As for the US, support for Ukraine has gone from 'as long as it takes' to 'as long as we can.'

NATO leaders have shot down a suggestion by France’s president Macaron that Western troops could eventually fight alongside Ukrainian forces two years into Russia’s ongoing invasion, as the Kremlin warned of a wider conflict with the West.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement highlighted fears that Russian advances in Ukraine will make Moscow bold enough to threaten front-line eastern European states, even as some $60 billions of dollars in military aid from the US to Kyiv remained deadlocked in the Congress as Republicans want more funds diverted to southern borders to tackle the influx of illegal migrations from south and north America that has reached unprecedented proportions.

“There’s no consensus today to send…troops on the ground,” French President Emanuel Macron told reporters from the presidential palace on Monday. “But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war." These quotes of the French president appeared in the US largest circulated daily the USA TODAY. Macron did not commit himself to saying which European allies were ready to join him in putting their military boots on the ground in Ukraine to end the war. He cited the need for “strategic ambiguity.” To keep Russia on the tenterhooks of a NATO intervention.

While the French president spoke of ambiguity, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg brought more clarity to the issue telling an American wire agency that there are “no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.” Other NATO leaders joined issue. “There will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil who are sent there by European states or NATO states,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters Monday after a meeting of 20 leaders and diplomats hosted by Macron.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland said Tuesday that his country’s troops would not fight in Ukraine, and Czech Republic Prime Minister Petr Fiala said his country “certainly doesn’t want to send its soldiers.” Even the US President Joe Biden's fighting desperately the Republicans in the Congress to get his aid package of over $100 billion for Ukraine and Israel passed, has made it amply clear that there was no question of US forces putting its boots on the ground in Ukrainian soil.  National Security Council spokesman John Kirby pointed out "It's a sovereign decision that every NATO ally would have to make for themselves. "There'll be no U.S. troops on the ground in a combat role there."

Experts on the Ukraine Russia war say the Kremlin has seized on Macron’s comments to warn of the first-ever combat between Russian and NATO troops. “In this case, we need to talk not about probability, but about the inevitability” of direct fighting between Moscow’s forces and those of the Western military alliance, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been quoted saying. This means Russia is ready to escalate the war even as it faces additional sanctions from the US for opposition leader Alexiei Navalnys death in custody. Ghost ships are being sent by Russia to  China and India to supply crude oil beating sanctions through netural sea waters.  

Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelensky is at his wits end, who has made several trips to the USA meeting President Joe Biden, Congress leaders, even addressing the Congress, amid dismal reports that the Ukranian army is struggling to hold off the Russians amid an ammunition shortage and waning U.S. assistance.

Avdiivka has fallen after nine months of aid stalemate as Russian forces have taken control of the eastern Ukrainian city. Moscow continues to hold nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory. A $60 billion U.S. aid package for Ukraine is languishing in the corridors of Capitol hill stalled by Republicans as polls show GOP voters souring on support with former President Donald Trump pulling the party away from Ukraine.

Biden had promised at the 2023 State of the Union address to support Kyiv "as long as it takes." By December, Biden changed the tone to telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Washington would keep up military aid for "as long as we can.” This interpretation has appeared in the American media to show Ukraine is struggling to get sustained support from the US as Biden struggled against the GOP to get his bills passed.

The European Union and individual member states are scrambling to shore up Kyiv as American resolve weakens. Earlier this month, European leaders pledged $54 billion in economic aid, for a total of $150 billion since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The U.S., for its part, has sent $74.3 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian aid, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. 

Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnel says that former President  Donald Trump made Ukraine aid package 'doubly challenging' as he fights for deal in the senate while Trump wants to make it an election issue even though Biden has come out with a modified immigration bill to check migrant influx across the southern borders. Trump is making the aid package to Ukraine an election issue not wanting republicans to pass the immigration reforms bill that would release aid to Ukraine. He wants people to vote for him on grounds that Biden has failed to tackle the immigration issue that is making middle class American lives unstable. 

Some countries are 'ready' to send troops, a Slovakian leader said. In remarks on Monday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who opposes military aid to Ukraine, said he had heard that some countries were considering bilateral deals to send troops.  "There are countries that are ready to send their own soldiers to Ukraine, there are countries that say never – Slovakia is among them – and there are countries that say that this proposal should be considered," Fico said. 

While many Western leaders were aghast at the French president’s suggestion, it received a warm welcome in Kyiv. "Macron is now demonstrating a deep understanding of the risks posed to Europe by the war in Ukraine," Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak told a French news agency. "The French president's statement clearly takes the discussion to another level," he was quoted as saying: This is a good sign,"

US isn't 'eager' to see European troops in Ukraine. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Macron was likely sending message to Russian leader Vladimir Putin that Europe would consider all options to defend Ukraine – though the actual chances of French troops actually fighting Russian forces was minuscule.

French troops at best might serve as technical advisors for the advanced missile systems that France and other countries have pledged to their embattled ally. And, despite John Kirby's diplomatic response to the French president, "I don't think the U.S. is eager to see any NATO member boots on the ground," Bergmann said. "It could produce additional pressure on the U.S. to do the same.

While it may be history that ex-President Donald Trump created quite a controversy with his statement that he told a NATO leader that US won't stand by that country if it did not commit 2% of its GDP to defense expenditure. “Russia can do whatever hell it wants with that country” sent alarm bells ringing with the NATO. US President Joe Biden sent his VP Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to assuage the feelings of NATO leaders and its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that America would stand shoulder to shoulder with its NATO allies in a crisis even as NATO began discussions on a European Defense Net against Russia.

The US contributes about $70 billion to NATO for defense preparedness in terms of military equipment and other things, Germany being the 2nd highest with $30 billion contribution. NATO fears that if Trump were to become president in 2024 it would lose out on this massive contribution.

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