The FINAL FRONTIER - Last phase of Indian General Elections concludes Saturday June 01 - 57 seats up for grabs in eight states - PM Modi is up for voting and a win for a 3rd time

 

 The Final Frontier – India’s reaches last leg of its marathon 45 day election cycle – 57 seats up for grabs in eight states – PM Modi leads the table of top contenders in the fray Saturday

By Ashe N Ayer

India reached the last leg of its marathon 45-day election cycle with 58 seats going up for grabs in eight states and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now meditating on the rocky memorial offshore in Kankayakumari, the confluence of three seas, the Arabian sea to the left, bay of Bengal to the right and the Indian Ocean ahead, is the top contender to defend his seat in Varanasi, the holy city of the Hindus in UP.

The gigantic 7-phase election in India climaxes today with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to complete the hat trick in the holy city of Varanasi, home to the scared river of Ganges, flowing from the head of the supreme deity of the Hindu pantheon of Gods, Lord Siva. There are prestige fights for Bengals supremo Ms. Mamata Banerjee, the Badal family of the Tejaswi Yadav roaring like a lion in a land once considered by the UNICEF as the most backward in the world.

The Ruling BJP led NDA is out there to defend 30 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections , including 11 out of 13 in UP, all eight in Bihar, all four in Himachal Pradesh, two out of three in Jharkhand, 2 out of 6 in Odisha , 2 out of 13 in Punjab, and the lone seat in Chandigarh.

The BJP is looing for breakthroughs in Odisha, the land of the Patnaik family, where it had none.

The 27-party coalition of INDIA bloc is looking to defend 19 seats, including 9 in West Bengal, 9 out of 13 in Punjab, and one out of 3 in Jharkhand.

The Congress led INIDIA bloc is setting its sights on Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together offer some 140 plus seats , a deciding factor in choosing the PM along with Gujarat and Rajasthan , both of which have some 25 plus and 48 seats. The norther part of India constitute 166 seats that decides the next prime minister. The west pitches in with over 101 seats, east with 131 seats and south with 134 seats.

Others in the fray are the BJD, mot part of the India block but opposing BJP, defending 4 ut of 6 seats. , BSP in UP and Akalis in Punjab, all of of them defending 2 seats each. The Akalis had a sizeable chunck of seats in the last elections.

There are a total of 904 candidates , of which 95 are women constittuig 11% of the total number of seats, 299 billionaire candidates constituting 33% of the seats, 199 candidates facing criminal cases constituting a whopping 22 % of the seats and the educated at graduate level and above upto PG and Phd’s constitute half or 50% of the total number of seats.

The high stakes battle to watch is: Prime Minister Narendra Modi defends his city in Varanasi aka Benares in the Indian dialect, sitting on the holy river Ganges, is defending his seat he won by a massive margin in the 2019 elections. No one dares a behemoth like Modi, who has a larger than life image in India outpacing many film stars and cricketers the two that united the country of diverse cultures. Times of India, a leading daily across several cities in North and South , took out a page from Modi’s dairy of quotes of “ Ab ki bar 400”, in its furtherance to say ab ki par 10 lakh par, meaning his vote numbers will cross a million.

Modi is confident of the hat rick and also a 3^rd term as PM and psephologists predict he will cross 66% of the votes share. He will beat former PM and the Young Turk Chandrasekhar’s record of wins. Can Modi beat his own record of 4.80 lakh votes or 63% of the vote share set in 2019 17^th Lok Sabha elections?

Modi, essentially from the western state of Gujarat where head been a CM for a record five terms, 25 years, choice of Varanasi was masterstroke in 2014 when he contested first for the Lok Sabha. He has reportedly developed the city well, cleaned it up of its mess and has done a lot of good for the adjoining constituencies. The only spoiler is the high temperatures in meteorological terms. His main opponent is Ajay Rai of the Congress who has been fielded since 2014, 2019 and has come a 2rd with 75,000 and 150,000 votes.

This time fielded jointly by the Congress and INDIA bloc which means he has the support of the SP, a force to reckon with in UP besides BJP. So his vote percentage could go up to propel him to the 2^nd position. BSP of Mayawati, a former CM of UP, not part of the INIDIA alliance, has fielded Lari, a veteran, who launched his political career with the Janata Party, Over the years, he has shifted loyalties and has been associated with Apna Dal, a force emerging in UP, an ally of BJP, Qaumi Ekta Dal, SP, and now BSP, But he is yet to win an election.

Besides Varanasi which steals the limelight Saturday, there are high stakes battles to look for in UP, Bihar, Wet Bengal and Punjab.

Nine Lok Sabha seats including those of Kolkata, the capacity city, and its adjoining suburbs, - all have been won by the ruling Trinamook Congress of chief minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee. IN the 2019 17^th Lok Sabha polls. With several hevy weights in the fray, including party general secretry and the CM;s Nephew, tipped to tke over from her in the long run, there are several others. To mention a few there are ; Saugata Roy, Sudip Bamdhopadhyaya, Kakoli Ghosh, Dastidar, and Mala Ray. It’s a prestige battle for the party.

The highest percentages of voting have been in West Bengal at over 70% in the country’s rather poor showing from 58% to 64%. This could mean two things – TMC voters turned out in large numbers to defeat the BJP candidates or an anti-incumbency factor was operating which forced them to come out in large numbers to defeat the incumbent TMC candidates. Which one is it going to be, June 04 will tell?

 Spotlight is on Basirhat, where the PM campaigned intensively attacking the TMC of looting the public and his vow to return the monies to them, and this includes the assembly segment of Saneshkali, witness to atrocities against women alleged by parties opposing TMC. It’s a TMC stronghold and the epicenter of a legal battle.

Punjab : The Sikh votes matter for all political parties here which was once the stronghold of an alliance between ruling BJP and ruling SAD , that saw embittered relations and broke over the farmers agitation. Comedian in Reality Shows Baghwant  Mann, Indias version of Volodomyr Zelensky of Ukraine,  who took the state from both Congress, SAD and the BJP, has campaigned in the absence of his boss in the AAP who had been jailed in Delhi on connection with a money laundering scam linked to liquor licenses.

Any victory for Mann will cement his position in the Chief Ministers Gaddi (seat of power) in Punjab and also in the national scene as an emerging national leader of the AAP. Congress hoipes to emerge with 13 seats as the major party. It won 8 in 2019. But division with the congress and infighting could take a toll. SAD leader Sukhbir Singh , son of the supremo Prakash Singh Badal, a relic of the Janata party of 1977, who lost the vote share to the Congress in 2017 asse,bly polls , he hoped to turn the tide. SAD went out of favour with the public for its alleged involbement in a massive drug mafia and distdribution scandal where several youths were forced to become drug addicts.

BJP is testing unchartered waters here with a farmers backlash against them on the MSP for crops and hopes to enlarge its footpring with the voters on its own.

UP & Bhar : This is the final frontier of turfs in UP for both PM Modi and CM Yogi . Of the 13 seats here 9 were won by the BJP in 2019, and two by its ally Apna Dal, (S), BSP won two. Caste plays a dominant factor in the elections in various constituencies in the northern state. You have the OBC ( Other Backward Classes), Yadavs ( milkmen by profession), Kurmis, Kushwahas, Rajbhars. They are play a pivotal role with the Dalits, a lower class. Upper Castes of Thakurs and Brahmins have their own pockets of influence. The balance can be tilted in some seats. In Bihar the INDIA opposition bloc is hoiping to reclaim some lost ground with the declining popularity of the CM NitishKumar, who suddenly changed trains and joined the bandwagon of the BJP, angering a section of voters who see him as an opportunist , and rise of Tejaswi Yadav, son of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav.

There are some 18 key battles in UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Punjab in this 7^th phase. But will confine myself to the most keenly contested battles.

Patna Sahib; 2019 winner : former union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad : BJP has field him again and he has to contend with Anshul Avjit of the Congress, BJP has won this eat all three times since it ws formed in 2009 following the oreorganisation of the Lok Sabha constituency.

Patliputra : Winner : Ram Kripal Yadav (BJP): MISA Bharti, daughter of former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav is the hottest candidate facing incumbent Ram Kripal Yadav of BJP ielded again. MISa Bharti so called as she was born on the day the then Prime Ministers Mrs Indira Gandhi ntroduced the new legislation called Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA) and jailed all opposition leaders at the height of the Jayaprakash Narayan movement in the state.

Damond Harbour : CM Ms Mamata Banerjees nephew Abhishek Banerjee is the key contender here facing Abhijit Das of BJP and Pratikur Rahaman of the CPM. Abhishek has held the seat since 2014 and hopes to retainit. But the CPM had this seat as its bastion since 1952.

Patiala : Preneet Kaur , wife of former Punjab CM Amarinder Singh, holds this seat . She hopes to retain this seat of the Royal Patiala family. She switched to BJP from the congress. PM Modi and other heavyeights of the BJP have thrown their weight behind her. She faces Dharamvir Gandhi of the Congress. 

Bathinda : Harsimrat Singh Badal, daughter in law of the Badal family and sitting MP  faces fierce competiton from AAP’s Gurmeet Singh Khudian, agriculture minister, AAP. He had defeatd her father in law Prakash Singh Badal, five times MP, from Lambi , a constitutent , in the 2022 assembly elections. BJP has fielded Parampal Kaur Sidhu, a former ISAs officer and daughter in law of the former Akali minister Sikander Singh Maluka.

Jalandhar : Santok Singh Chaudhary of the Congress was the incumbent. After his sudden death Sushil Kumar Rinku of the AAP won the byelections. He is facing Charansinghjit Singh Channi of the Congress.  Pawan Kumar Timu of AAP. And Mohinder Singh Kaypee of SAD. Its battle of turncoats of candidates who had constantly switched loyalties from one party to another and there is a former CM in the fray.

Mandi in HP has strong lime light because of the Bollywood actress of Queen fame Kangana Singh Ranaut, fielded by the BJP. A total greenhorn surrounded by a mire of controversies for shooting her mouth on every subject she does not understand faces a veteran family of the Vir Bhadra Singh where scion Vikramaditya Singh opposes her from the Congress. He is the heir of the erstwhile princely state of Bushahr in the hill side state.

Gorakhpur : Another STAR power constituency where sitting BJP MP Ravi Kishen, a popular Bhojpuri actor, faces off with Kajal Nishad of the SP and and Javed Sharaf of the BSP. UP CM Yogi Adityanath rpresented this constituency five times in the past. Ravi Kishan won this seat with the blessings of the CM Yogi Adityanath after he lost the seat in 2014 in Jaunpur as the Congress candidate.

Mirzapur : Anupriya Patel of the Apna Dal (S) is the sitting MP. She faces off with Ramesh Singh Bind of the SP and Manish Tripathi of the BSP. Union Minister Anupriya Patel is seeking a record 3^rd term from this constituency where Kurmi caste is the dominant community that supports her. There was a bit of commotion in this consitutency when Raghuraj Prasad Singh more popularly known as Raju Bhaiya said he would campaign against her.

Kolkota South : Mala Roy of the TMC hold this seat and it’s a bastion of the TMC since 1991 and when Ms Mamata Banerjee was elected CM in 2011, there has been no looking back. Boanipur is the home constituency of the CM. South Kolkota is synonymous with TMC. In 2014 TMC boat rock was rocked hen it vote share fell below 40% and yet ist candidates victory margin was 130,000 votes. But BJP has raised it vote share here to 4% ins subsequent elections since 2014. Debshree Chaudhuri faces off with mala Roy while CPM has fielded Saira Shah Halim.

Kolkota North :Sudip Bandyopadhyay of the TMC holds the seat. He is pitted against a strong BJP candidate Tapas Ray and Pradip bhattacharya of the Congress. Since the Lok Sabha constituency ws formed in 2009, Sudi has won it three times. Trinamool won all the seven assembly segment here in 2021 polls. Sudi is hoping for a 4^th term against his own party adversary , Tapas Ray, who flipped to the BJP.

Bashirhat: Nusrat Jahan of the TMC holds the seat. But she has been switched for Nurul Haji . He is fighting Rekha patra of the BJP and Niraada Sarkar of the CPM. In What was a predictable bastion of the TMC for the last three decades. The Sandeshkali assembly segment has injected massive controversy with alleged attoricities on women. TMC candidate won this seat by a margin of 3,50,000 votes. Sexual abuse of women in this cosntitencu by local politicians is bound to resonate with the voters. TMC claims the allegations have been cooked up by the BJP. Any it’s a closely watched contest.

Inputs : The Times of India, and leading publications.  

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