Divergent poll surveys indicate entirely different results in ongoing 2024 presidential elections - One poll says Trump and another claims Harris - But POP POP and Drill Baby Drill Baby rhetoric of Trump seems to have little effect on disillusioned voters while Harris gains ground on battlegrounds
US 2024 Elections: Poised on the razor's edge – While one poll says Trump has the swing states within his grasp because of the 2nd assassination bid , other polls say Kamala Harris is still ahead in swing and battleground states.
TN Ashok Washington. Sept 18, 2024
US Elections 2024 : The latest report after the 2nd assassination attempt on Donald Trump on his palm beach golf course in Florida says the trends now swing towards ex-president in the swing states and the seven battlegrounds. “More it tightens up in the swing states more likely that Trump is going to be the next President.”
The seven swing states are : Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carlonina, Arizona, Georgia and Colarado. The toss up stats are - Pennsylvania and Georgia - in the former both Harris and Trump are tied and in the latter Trup is ahead despite facing cases under the RICO act in Atlanta. Nebraska with the lone electoral college vote could be the clincher and its turning turtle - turning blue in the last few weeks as Blue Dots have appeared all over the front porches of the peope there and more people are depending more.
The November 05 Presidential elections is likely to see some major twists and turns along the way, and if the key swing states stay with Donald Trump, he could attain a major victory in the polls, as per analysts. Kamala Harris had been rising steadily in the polls after Joe Biden's exit from the election race, but reports suggest that it could still not be enough to see the Democrats through.
According to a Newsweek report, with almost 50 days remaining for the US presidential polls, things are going Donald Trump's way, or so it seems, looking at the fact that the key swing states are still in his favor, as per some latest poll surveys.
Did the Presidential debate do damage?
Even though Republican pollsters themselves claimed that Donald Trump had a bad day during the Presidential Debate against Kamala Harris, where he was baited multiple times across some critical issues, things are still looking in his favor across some major key swing states like Arizona, Florida and more.
After the assassination attempt on Trump took place and his life came under threat, the key swing states reacted proactively in favor of Trump, as per some polls. Meanwhile, a few other polls had simultaneously claimed that Harris was leading in some swing states, and they were unaffected by the shooting event.
Issues like abortion or guns could create problems for Trump
Although the election race is looking quite comfortable for Donald Trump at this point, some key issues affecting the polls, including abortion, should be treated very carefully by the former US President, in case he does not wish to lose the polls. Trump has been doing a flip-flop on the abortions issue confusing voters . 1st he took a strong stand against abortion when Biden was in the race. But after abortion right activist toured battlegrounds and won womens support, Trump developed cold feet and flipped on his stand sayig he was OK with abortion in issues like incest, rape and foetus abnormalities confusing voters. The orthodix christian catholic voters and the evangelicals that support showed a blowback as they wanted Trump to states Yes or No for abortion.
Ron DeSantis crosses the line in war against abortion rights | Commentary
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis isn't merely campaigning against a popular abortion-rights amendment set to appear on the November ballot: He is turning the organs of state government against it, making a mockery of the notion, enshrined in law, that there should be a firewall between governing and electoral politics. Florida's tinpot governor, whose political potency has been diminished by electoral loss and recent scandal, has abandoned persuasion in lieu of coercion.
Attorney General Ashley Moody unsuccessfully fought to keep the amendment off the ballot entirely. A DeSantis-backed board of bureaucrats successfully dreamed up a bogus disclosure that will be attached to the proposed amendment warning voters that the restoration of abortion rights could somehow "negatively impact the state budget." DeSantis has also marshaled the state's investigative power, having his elections chief lean on county supervisors to examine petition signatures in a wild goose chase for fraud, according to the Tampa Bay Times, even though the deadline to challenge the validity of such signatures, which were needed to get the amendment on the November ballot, has long passed.
Most brazenly, Jason Weida, DeSantis' secretary of the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, this week shared a special landing page on the agency's official website that contains explicit anti-abortion campaign material, including a claim that the amendment "threatens women's safety" and aspersions cast about the "self interested out of state groups" that support the amendment's passage. Weida dubiously referred to this as a "transparency page," but its true intentions are barely masked: This is an in-kind contribution to opponents of the abortion-rights amendment courtesy of state government and taxpayers.
It's inconceivable this campaign activity didn't involve a substantial use of official state resources beyond Weida's core competencies, which may or may not include web design but definitely include coming up with creative ways to boot needy kids off health insurance. This was — at best — only a marginally legal use of state power but certainly a violation of the spirit of the law. "Absolutely wild how far DeSantis and his admin will go to keep abortion banned in Florida," state Rep. Anna V. Eskamani said this week of Weida's ploy.
This obsequiousness recalls the final, frigid days of DeSantis' presidential primary campaign, when scores of Florida's elected and government officials — including the heads of important regulatory agencies, charged with carrying out non-political work — flocked to Iowa to prop up the illusion DeSantis remained a viable candidate. It was a pitiful but revealing moment: gone was the notion of public service in DeSantis' Florida, replaced instead by service to one.
DeSantis' campaign to fight the amendments expanding abortion rights and legalizing marijuana has attracted out-of-state investment, notwithstanding his administration's suspicion of such money when it supports causes he doesn't like. The largest individual contributor, for example, to the Florida Freedom Fund — a political committee chaired by DeSantis' chief of staff — is Michael Charles Dearing, a venture capitalist with a Wyoming address, according to the group's financial disclosure form. Dearing's $500,000 contribution is about 20 percent of the $2.5 million the committee reported raising through last month.
DeSantis has been on the defensive since signing a six-week abortion ban after a legislative session last year intended to bolster his then-nascent presidential primary campaign. For DeSantis, that presidential campaign was a catastrophe, having robbed him of the electorally invincible "Top Gov" persona he worked for years to cultivate. For Floridians, his political posturing left them saddled with noxious campaign-season policies, like his draconian and unpopular abortion ban.
The six-week restriction is so toxic even Donald J. Trump has run from it, calling it a "terrible mistake" in real time. He continues to tweak DeSantis over it, refusing to back it even under pressure from his evangelical base.
The abortion-rights ballot issue, called Amendment 4, is pretty basic: It would overturn the state's six-week ban and permit abortions until fetal viability, or 24 weeks, the standard under which the country operated for decades until the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Although Trump was the architect of that landmark moment, he, unlike his one-time protege, clearly understands how fraught the issue is for Republicans and has clumsily and dishonestly grasped for some kind of softer tone. Not DeSantis.
The state's elected leadership long ago forfeited any claim to be representing a majority of Floridians' interests, and so citizens have time and again forced the issue by organizing and then approving constitutional amendments that often reflect a more moderate vision for the state than the Florida GOP prefers. Wary of this, Florida's non-representative representatives have crafted onerous barriers for citizens pursuing such a path. Amendments have to win 60 percent approval — an enormous difficulty, particularly in this polarized age — and even then the governor and legislature have shown they are willing to defy popular will.
In 2018, for example, Floridians might have been under the impression they overwhelmingly approved the restoration of voting rights to people with past non-violent felony convictions. What they got instead, thanks to after-the-fact hijinks by the governor and legislature, was an impenetrable poll-tax-like scheme that makes it difficult for ex-felons to vote without risking charges of voter fraud.
DeSantis' extreme efforts to fight the expansion of abortion rights and recreational marijuana telegraph a similar future were either or both to become law: If DeSantis can't beat Floridians at the ballot box, he'll try to legislate their popular will into oblivion.
The florida referendum on abortion mooted by governor Ron De Santis is posing a big problem for Trump, if he says YES , which he does say in the affirmative sometimes and the flips again. The voters are totally confused by his stand. As he does not amplify his stand.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about the US Elections:
What are some of the key issues affecting the US elections
Some key issues affecting the US Presidential elections include abortion, recession, inflation, jobs rate, and much more.
Are there only two Presidential candidates in the US elections 2024?
Yes, there are primarily two Presidential candidates in the US elections 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Robert F Kennedy dropped out of the race few weeks back and endorsed Trump instead.
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts during a visit at the Community College of Philadelphia, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 17, 2024. Image Courtesy - REUTERST
As reported by ABC News, Harris's advantage in the nationwide popular vote now ranges from 2 to 7 points, with most polls exceeding the usual 3.5-point margin of error. The only exception is a poll by AtlasIntel, which shows Trump leading by four points. Although Donald Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote and still secure the presidency through the electoral college, the latest analysis from 538 presents a challenging outlook for his campaign.
The aggregator now estimates a 39 percent chance for Trump to win the electoral college, while Kamala Harris's chances are rated at 61 percent. In 1,000 simulations run by 538, Harris emerged victorious 609 times, Trump 387 times, with no clear winner in four cases.
These polls were conducted before the second alleged assassination attempt on Trump, an event some MAGA media claim is not being adequately covered by mainstream outlets. 538, owned by ABC News, faces accusations from Trump of colluding with Harris and skewing last week's debate in her favor. Trump election team accused ABC of receiving one million dollars each for the hosts to swing the debate in favour of Harris.
US elections: Swing state TV viewership surged for Trump-Harris debate
Arizona and Wisconsin registered the biggest jumps in viewers at 41 per cent each. Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania also posted larger increases than the US average.
Viewing Increased Across All County Sizes Although Only the Largest Counties Increased More Than The Total | Image Courtesy - Bloomberg
According to a Bloomberg report, The Kamala Harris-Donald Trump debate saw a big political heft in TV viewership in seven states that are likely to decide the 2024 presidential election. The Sept. 10 debate between Democrat Harris and Republican Trump drew an audience of 67.1 million viewers overall, up more than 30 per cent from Trump’s earlier face-off with Biden. The gain was even larger in the seven swing states, according to Nielsen data.
Arizona and Wisconsin registered the biggest jumps in viewers at 41 per cent each. Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania also posted larger increases than the US average. The higher ratings suggest the debate may have more impact in those crucial states, US media reports have indicated..
“Clearly, there’s something very interesting going on here,” said Brian Fuhrer, Nielsen’s senior vice president of product strategy, who put together the data.
Hosted by CNN, the first presidential debate took place in June between President Joe Biden and Trump, with Biden’s sluggish performance leading him to withdraw from the race. After Biden dropped out in July and endorsed Harris, she clinched the Democratic nomination.
The Harris-Trump debate drew more viewers among all racial groups, with the biggest gains among Asian and Black audiences, according to Nielsen. The Hispanic audience climbed by 41 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for Whites.
Viewing increased across all county sizes although only the largest counties increased more than the total.
The second debate saw Harris and Trump spar over issues like abortion rights, immigration policy and the economy. Trump declared the contest his “best debate ever,” but complained that the ABC News moderators were biased against him, and he has said he won’t debate Harris again.
Major Democratic donors cheered the contest as a Harris victory and pop star Taylor Swift endorsed the vice president on social media shortly after the debate’s conclusion.
Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, a senator from Ohio, and his Democratic rival, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, are scheduled to meet in an Oct. 1 debate hosted by CBS News.
US Elections 2024: Beyond law-and-order problem, Trump assassination bid shows US Secret Service needs an overhaul
Two months after a near-fatal assassination attempt on Donald Trump, security concerns escalated as a gunman managed to remain hidden for nearly 12 hours near the golf course where Trump played on Sunday, protec
ted by an overstretched Secret Service. As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, the Secret Service is grappling with severe staffing shortages, operating with 400 fewer employees than Congress has approved, according to government records.
These personnel gaps are unlikely to be addressed before the November 5 election, as hiring within the agency typically takes over 200 days. With President Joe Biden bowing out of the re-election race in July and Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic contender against Republican Trump, the Secret Service has expanded its protective coverage to a larger group of high-profile figures, further straining resources.
Former Secret Service agents and department leaders describe the situation as unprecedented. Kenneth Valentine, a former agent, said in a phone interview, “The pressure has never been greater than it is right now.”
The strain on the agency was evident on Sunday when Trump chose to golf privately at one of his Florida clubs.
Due to time constraints, agents skipped a routine site survey, a standard practice that might have uncovered the gunman, who had concealed himself near the fifth hole of Trump International Golf Club. The gunman had been holed up for hours, armed and prepared, within a few hundred yards of where Trump played.
Though members of Congress from both parties have expressed willingness to approve additional funding, this measure won’t resolve the immediate personnel crisis. The long hours and high-pressure situations are taking a toll on agents already stretched thin by the demands of protecting candidates and officials.
The risks became starkly clear on July 13, when a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, killing a bystander and grazing Trump’s ear with a bullet. Secret Service agents swiftly evacuated Trump and neutralized the attacker, but the incident exposed critical security gaps. Rowe later told Congress he felt "ashamed" of the agency's failure to prevent the shooting.
On Sunday, during the latest incident at the Florida golf course, a vigilant Secret Service agent spotted the barrel of an AK-47-style rifle, forcing the would-be assassin to flee before he could take aim at Trump. While the immediate threat was thwarted, the event underscored the increasing dangers the agency faces amid the election's final stretch. The incident did not have. much of an impact on the voters, as media reports suggested that not a single shot was fird from the AK 47 which was abandoned by Routh who fled the sit in his Nissan leaving his two bag packs behind.
‘Almost like people expected this’: Will latest Trump brush affect US race?
How does an assassination attempt transform a presidential race?
American voters have posed this question themselves twice this month with Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump on Sunday facing yet another incident the FBI has said it is investigating as an attempt on his life. Shots were fired, Trump said he said the sound Pop, Pop, Pop Pop, before secret service fired back.
And the Florida attack came just two months after Trump survived a gunman’s bullet while on stage during a campaign rally. A day after the latest attack, its implications are far from clear, but Trump’s response has been unequivocal. After a US Secret Service agent fired on the gunman at Trump’s golf resort in Florida, the former president issued a defiant statement, vowing “I will never surrender!” That echoed his previous sentiment in the moments after the July attack in Pennsylvania, in which a bloodied Trump pumped his fist in the air, chanting “fight, fight, fight”.
As in July, Trump on Monday again blamed the second attack on presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris, saying it was a result of Democrats’ “rhetoric” and “lies” that bullets are flying. It is a familiar response, according to James Davis, a Republican strategist, who said Trump’s campaign likes to remind voters of the July attack, which Trump survived by a matter of millimeters.
“It is kind of a reminder of how close of a call July actually was, how significant it was for so many people,” Davis told Al Jazeera. That could turn out some key voters in battleground states, a potentially significant boost in an election expected to be decided by just a few thousand votes in key areas.
At the same time, Sunday’s event so far appears to be eliciting a much more muted response than the jolt of the attack in July. That is a reflection of just how normalised the threat of violence has become in a race where the vast majority of voters are deeply entrenched in their party support, Davis said.
“I’ve talked to a number of people in the aftermath, and it’s almost like people expected this. And that’s horrifying,” he added. “The feeling in the air is not even shock. People are talking about this in a more pensive way.”
‘No sympathy bump’
Trump did see a political bump in the wake of the July attack. Just two days afterwards, he triumphantly took the stage at the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin winning the partys nomination.
The attack transformed the event, with supporters in the audience wearing bandages to mimic the one worn by Trump after a bullet grazed his right ear. His campaign promised the brush with death would beckon in a less bellicose, more unifying candidate, even if that vow never came to pass.
To some political analysts, the July attempt all but assured Trump’s victory in November as his then-opponent, President Joe Biden, was lagging badly in the polls after his disastrous debate performance in late June.
But barely a week after the rally shooting – before most high-quality polls on its effect could even be conducted – Biden dropped out of the race. Democrats coalesced around Harris, who saw a surge in support that largely neutralized Trump’s momentum.
Despite the extraordinary campaign disruptions over the summer, polls have again shown the two candidates neck and neck. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found only a one percent difference in support in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Rina Shah, a political strategist, predicted Trump would not feel a similar phenomenon this time around. “There’s no sympathy bump this time,” she told Al Jazeera. “It is what it is. People have baked in what they believe.”
Shah said there has been repeated evidence that unprecedented events do little to shift electoral dynamics in a political landscape that regularly stretches into uncharted territory. She pointed to a host of dramatic political events, going back to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 vote and his criminal conviction earlier this year – as well as Biden’s unusual exit from the race.
Combine that with voters disillusioned by a political system dominated by the ardent bases of the two parties – and the outsized influence of special interest groups – and she expected little to change following Sunday. “The people paying attention are absolutely numb to what’s going on,” Shah said. “Then there’s a lot of apathy out there, because American representative democracy is broken.”
Trend of political violence
Of course, Sunday’s events are still likely to cast a long shadow, although that may loom largest outside of the political horse race. The July attack has already seen a reckoning over how the Secret Service protects candidates and how those candidates safely campaign. While the Secret Service has been hailed for heading off what could have been a much worse situation in Florida, those questions are likely to persist. 
On Monday, Biden said the Secret Service “needs more help”, in his first public comment calling for more resources for the agency. “And I think Congress should respond to their need,” he said.
For his part, Trump remained on the campaign trail after the July attack, albeit with bulletproof glass and barriers to block sight lines, now a mainstay at his rallies. His campaign has not indicated he plans to cancel any upcoming events, which include an in-person rally in Flint, Michigan on Tuesday.
Michael Fauntroy, the founding director of the Race, Politics, and Policy Center at George Mason University, said he expected little soul-searching among the political establishment following the most recent incident. Fauntroy described the event as the logical conclusion of political strategies to demonise opponents that Trump helped to foster, creating a powder keg in a country with such easy access to guns.
“It’s just a continuing turn that America has taken toward political violence,” he said. “Nobody can be surprised by that.” Fauntroy pointed to former President Barack Obama, about whom Trump spread racist “birther” conspiracy theories during his early days in politics. A 2014 Washington Post report found Obama received three times as many threats as presidents before him.
Source : US media reports.
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